Monterey Bay Marine Forecast (2024)

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1051pm PDT Monday July 8 2024

Issued at 714pm PDT Monday July 8 2024

It's been a fun evening of forecasting.

Recent model updates continue to show cooling in store for Tuesday for all but the most interior areas of Monterey and San Benito counties. As such we have removed Tuesday from the Heat Advisory, but it will go back into affect starting 11am Wednesday and last into Friday.

The
Excessive Heat Warning...emain untouched.

Stay safe, friends.

- Murdock

.SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1222pm PDT Monday July 8 2024

Satellite imagery shows stratus confined mostly to the immediate coastal regions of the Bay Area and Central Coast, with patches hanging on near Berkeley and over the Napa County Airport. Expect these patches to degrade through the day while the coastal regions remain socked in through the evening, with stratus building back in overnight.

It is another day of heat for the interior regions, with Excessive Heat Warnings continuing in the Santa Lucias and the interior Central Coast mountains, and Heat Advisories continuing away from the coast across the rest of the region. High temperatures reach the 90s across the inland valleys, near the low 100s for the warmest spots across the Bay Area while southern Monterey County sweats it out with temperatures into the low 110s in areas close to the SLO County border. Elsewhere, highs range from the mid 70s to the low 80s along the Bayshore and the low to mid 60s along the coast. Tomorrow morning sees lows range from the mid 50s to lower 60s in the lower elevations, rising into the low to mid 70s in the thermal belts, while Tuesday's highs get a few degrees cooler in the interior, ranging from the mid 80s to lower 90s in most of the interior valleys to the upper 90s in the warmest spots of the Bay Area and the mid to upper 100s across southern Monterey County. The coast and Bayshore regions are expected to remain at around the same temperatures tomorrow.

Moderate HeatRisk is expected across the inland valleys today, translating into a continued risk of heat-related illness for sensitive populations, including children, the elderly, people with certain medical conditions, people who live in buildings without air conditioning, or people who work or live outdoors with no adequate shelter from the heat. The cumulative effects of last week's heat will compound the danger for heat-related illness. Remember these heat safety tips:

* Stay hydrated and drink plenty of fluids. * Wear lightweight, light-colored clothing. * Reduce time spent outdoors or stay in the shade. * Never leave people or pets unattended in vehicles. * Use sunscreen if going to the coast or the pool.

Long Term
(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1222pm PDT Monday July 8 2024

Marked warming begins on Wednesday as the upper level ridge strengthens over the western United States. The current forecast calls for high temperatures to peak on Thursday with the inland valleys seeing highs from the upper 90s to the upper 100s and some low 110s across the warmest spots, to the upper 80s to the mid 90s in the Bayshore, and the mid to upper 60s closer to the Pacific coast.
Excessive Heat Warning...nd Heat Advisories continue into Friday. The subsequent shifts may need to convert some of the Heat Advisories back into
Excessive Heat Warning...or the latter part of the week, particularly if confidence in very hot temperatures and a major risk of heat-related illness increases.

One word of caution for the forecast highs: There is still some uncertainty along the coastal regions, because how warm they will get will depend on how strong onshore flow gets and how deep the marine layer goes across the region. Stronger onshore flow and a more robust marine layer will tend to reduce temperatures across the coastal regions. In addition, these local phenomena are quite difficult to predict this far in advance. We saw this last week with onshore flow contributing to temperatures lower than forecast in the Santa Cruz area. If onshore flow and the marine layer are stronger than currently anticipated, temperatures could decrease by around 5 degrees or more across the coastal regions.

Temperatures cool back down into the merely quite warm for the upcoming weekend, with the current forecast calling for highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s inland. Beyond that the picture remains somewhat murky. Both the American and European ensemble models support next week being cooler than this week. However, the American ensembles continue to show a cooling trend through next week, but the European ensemble model remains insistent on temperatures stabilizing after this weekend's cooldown.

Marine
(Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1051pm PDT Monday July 8 2024

Surface high pressure over the Pacific Ocean will continue to be the dominating feature through the period. Northwesterly breezes will prevail through the period, increasing Wednesday as the pressure gradient tightens. Significant wave heigheights will begin to build to 10-15 feet in the outer waters by Wednesday and begin abating by Friday.

NOAA San Francisco Bay Area Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CA...
Heat Advisory from 11am Wednesday to 8pm PDT Friday for CAZ502>504-506-508-510-512>516-528.

Excessive Heat Warning...til 8pm PDT Friday for CAZ517-518.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3pm to 9pm PDT Tuesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3am PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 9pm Tuesday to 9am PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Monterey Bay Marine Forecast (2024)
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